Doug Wise, Former Deputy Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Douglas H. Wise served as Deputy Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency from August 2014 until August 2016. Following 20 years of zippy duty in the Unwashed where he served as an infantry and special operations officer, he spent the remainder of his career at CIA.
Robert Papp, Former Senior Executive, CIA
Robert Papp retired from the Central Intelligence Agency as a senior executive with wide-stretching service upalong and writ experience. He began his career in the U.S. Navy as a cryptologic officer and Russian linguist. He has a PhD in Russian history from Columbia University an M.A. in Russian Area Studies from Georgetown University and a B.S. from the U.S. Naval Academy.
OPINION — As of this article, the slaughter continues to increase, the Russian military juggernaut stumbles forward and backward, and the negotiations stalemate. At some point in the not-too-distant future, historians and political scientists will try to wordplay the question, when does encouraging and incentivizing a valiant nation fighting inclement overstepping wilt an act of geopolitical pessimism as well as a source of inspiration?
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As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues in âfull force,â NATO continues with a set of âhalf measures,â and overly cautious initiatives. For this article, we pinpoint âhalf-measuresâ as the provision of military support, encouragement of Ukrainians to fight, and the economic âwarfareâ versus the Russia – all washed-up to respond to the invasion while lamister uncontrived gainsay with the Russian military (the authors believe the deployment of NATO forces into Ukraine should have been washed-up surpassing the Russian military violated Ukraine sovereignty).
We believe those in the future will judge us harshly for stuff overly cautious and not intervening older and increasingly decisively. Itâs moreover likely they will harshly criticize us for exploiting the limitless valiance and determination of the Ukraine people. We unclose the provision of NATO anti-tank weapons, surface-to-air missiles, and other equipment and intelligence support by NATO member states has made a major difference on the Ukraine battlefield. As a consequence, observers virtually the globe are consuming a steady nutrition of social media images of burned-out Russian tanks and helicopters falling to earth.
Additionally, we internalize a stratum of repletion by expressing our âsolidarityâ and encouraging Ukrainian resistance while we remain inspired by the unflinching refractoriness of President Zelenskyy. Considering we culturally champion the underdog, we harbor a fervent hope Russian forces are stalled, out of ammunition, suffering from poor morale and training, incapable of a full victory, and the tide will turn in favor of the Ukraine Army. But hope is not a plan, and we must remain receptive to the objective reality Ukraine cannot gravity the Russian unwashed from Ukraine soil.
Despite the poor military translating Putin received from his armed forces leaders, matched by his own fantasies well-nigh a quick conquest of the largest country in Europe, we need to squint objectively at what is happening on the ground. Comparing a current tactical map of Russian advances to Putinâs infamous âhistoricalâ map of an illegitimate Ukrainian state, suggests he is not decisively winning, unless winning to Putin is the slaughter of thousands of innocent Ukraine civilians. We moreover have a yearning for regime transpiration in Russia. But is Russia really turning versus him while we silently plead for the mothers of those Russian soldiers killed in whoopee to rise up and confront the Putin regime? Or are we blinded by our own optimism considering we narrowly focus on street protests, bloggers, and newsroom embarrassments in Moscow?
We may vilify Putin as a national leader, but doubt he is truly isolated and need to alimony in mind he enjoys the support of the majority of the Russian population, and it is moreover important to remember parts of the world have not spoken out versus him, and some are plane supporting him. Unable to unzip victory on the ground, Putinâs immoral recourse (which weâve once started to see) is to turn to indiscriminate missile and air attacks, and unlcultured rocket and artillery strikes versus innocent civilians. As Putin becomes increasingly enraged with losses on the ground, he is once âculturally compelledâ to use the time-tested Russian method of pounding cities into submission.
Cipher Brief Subscriber Members can wangle Cipher Brief Expert and former CIA Chief of the Central Eurasia Division, Rob Dannenbergâs assessment, With his only option stuff escalation, this is how Putinâs War must End
These tactics have been used by the Russia throughout history from the Berlin in World War II, Grozny in Chechnya, and Raqqa in Syria. Since Putinâs inner whirligig is personally named in sanctions, threatened with designation as war criminals, and facing the ultimate economic swoon of the Russian Federation, they are trapped. Like Putinâs diaper âcornered ratâ, they have little recourse but to join with him and fight to the end considering their wealth and power derives from him, and his from the state.
The wounded withstand must win and do so quickly. Total war in Ukraine is a logical outcome as NATOâs half measures are unlikely to dissuade Putin from seeking total and unconditional victory. While we painfully ponder why Russia is taking this violent path, it is important to alimony in mind that Putinâs âspecial military operationâ is as much well-nigh humiliating and punishing Ukraine as it is well-nigh military accomplishment. As we watch the âirresistible Russian gravity meet the immovable Ukrainian object,â can we credibly assess that a decisive Ukrainian victory on the ground is achievable?
Ukrainians will certainly die trying, while NATO remains on the sidelines debating ever-expanding ideas well-nigh what constitutes an act of war while conveniently defining the limits of NATOâs moral obligations (in the sparsity of the Vendible V ethos of âan wade on one, is an wade on allâ) to conveniently stave doing more.
It might be useful to note at this point the NATO bombing of Belgrade in 1999, to defend the Kosovar Albanians, was washed-up outside the Vendible V obligation. Nobody, including the authors, advocates withdrawing the Ukrainians to their fate or encouraging them to sue for peace under draconian terms. But who gains and who loses from the unfurled carnage and human suffering that NATOâs almost-but-not-quite good-enough-to-turn-tide-of victory military support is inevitably enabling?
Soon the Ukrainian population, which has once seen the flight of some three million refugees, will have little remaining but rubble for where cities once stood. The humanitarian implications of this wanton Russian destruction on the ground are only just starting to be felt and it is unlikely the Russian occupiers will winnow future humanitarian aid and assistance from the West fearing it will bring the spirit of self-rule in wing to critically needed food, water, and medical care.
Other losers wideness the globe and far from the carnage have yet to be fully defined. The unbridled levels of NATO economic warfare, as a surrogate for NATO military action, may not produce decisive results, but will remain satisfying for Western leaders. Forget for now the effects on supply villenage and global markets, stock market portfolios, hedge funds, and currencies in ripened economies. Forget plane potential cyberattacks or the possible disabling of the internet. Consider instead the epic plight of poor nations, who plane now are staggering from the price of wheat in the Middle East and beyond.
One unvarying in this war is its unpredictability. We have been surprised at every turn and it is very possible that in spite of NATOâs cautious deportment we will find ourselves in uncontrived military confrontation with Russian forces. Should this happen, we will regret we had not confronted the Russians some 10,000 fallen Ukrainians ago. We missed our opportunity to intervene as the Russians were massing their invasion forces, so now we are fighting âby, with, and throughâ Ukrainian valiance while NATO stands and watches.
The historians of the future will judge us harshly for exploiting and squandering the souvenir every fallen Ukrainian has given us. Let us honor and applaud the courage, determination and resilience of the Ukraine people and loudly condemn the unlcultured Russian aggression. Let us moreover not have illusions well-nigh the real impact of feelgood measures that do not transpiration final outcomes in place of decisive NATO support. Cruelty comes in many forms.
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